No matter how much data we collect, there is bound to be inherent uncertainty in our rainfall and runoff estimates. Flood frequency analyses rely on curve fitting approaches that can vary substantially with the selected distribution. Why would you choose one or the other?

Join us for an overview of the available options and learn how sensitive the results are to the selected parameters. We’ll hear from Haden Smith, the developer of BestFit, a public domain software that has recently been validated against HEC-SSP, FLIKE, and other FFA tools. BestFit performs distribution fitting and Bayesian estimation from a choice of thirteen probability distributions.

We’ll also cover an overview of regional regression techniques, how to identify outliers, and how to interpret confidence limits. Our panelists will also demonstrate the effect of incorporating new extreme event observations on predicted trends along with the role of climate change in Bayesian inference.


Haden Smith

US Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center

Haden Smith is a senior hydrologic engineer with the USACE Risk Management Center. His experience in this position has included developing and advancing risk methodology, performing flood hazard asses... Read more

Michael Bartles


Mr. Bartles is a Hydraulic Engineer with ten years of experience specializing in Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling, Statistical Hydrology, and Software Development. Mike has been the project lead for... Read more

Beth Faber


Beth has been at the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the US Army Corps of Engineers since January 2000. Her work spans reservoir optimization and using uncertain forecast information to make op... Read more

Krey Price

International Water Training Institute

Educated at the University of California at Berkeley, Krey is a civil engineer and project manager with international experience in water resources. He is engaged in computational modelling, engineeri... Read more

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