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RMC-BestFit deep dive: unlock the full power of Flood Frequency Analysis

Explore modern flood frequency analysis with Bayesian inference, nonstationarity, and peaks-over-threshold using RMC-BestFit.

Starts 08 May

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About

This comprehensive 3-session course is designed for engineers and hydrologists who wish to develop practical, hands-on skills in using RMC-BestFit for modern flood frequency analysis (FFA). The course will guide participants through the process of handling time series data, incorporating historical information, performing distribution fitting and Bayesian analysis. By the end of the series, attendees will be well-equipped to analyse flood data with enhanced accuracy and confidence.

In addition to core flood frequency analysis techniques, the course covers a range of advanced topics including nonstationary analysis, peaks-over-threshold methods, mixture models, and model averaging. These topics will provide participants with a deeper understanding of the complexities involved in modern hydrological analysis to address more sophisticated challenges.

Each session features live demonstrations and real-world examples, allowing participants to see how the techniques are applied in practice. Interactive discussions and practical exercises ensure that attendees can immediately apply what they’ve learned to their own projects. By the end of the course, participants will have gained a comprehensive set of skills for tackling both basic and advanced flood frequency analysis.

Details

Date	Thursday, 8 May 2025 - Thursday, 22 May 2025
Time	9:00am (Australia/Sydney; find your local time)
Location	Online
Format	3 x 2-hour recordings + course material & resources
Cost	AUD $895.00 (INC GST)
Code	LC-25-3-136
Contact	training@awschool.com.au
Tags	Climate Adaptation

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Register your interest: https://awschool.com.au/training/bestfit-deep-dive/

Presenters

Haden Smith

US Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center

Haden Smith is a Lead Engineer with the USACE Risk Management Center, specialising in developing risk methodologies, conducting flood hazard assessments for high-priority dams and levees, and advancin... Read more

Panel Members

Rory Nathan

University of Melbourne

Rory is a Professor at the University of Melbourne and has over 40 years’ experience in engineering and environmental hydrology, mostly in industry, and now focuses his time on research and teaching... Read more

Declan O'Shea

University of Melbourne

Declan O’Shea is a Senior Hydrologist at HARC with over 7 years of experience in hydrology and water resources working in both research and consulting. Declan has experience in a range of hydrologi... Read more

Course Overview

This course is designed to provide engineers and hydrologists with the tools to perform robust flood frequency analysis using RMC-BestFit. Across three sessions, participants will explore at-site, nonstationary, and peaks-over-threshold methods, including Bayesian modelling, model averaging, and mixed population analysis.

Watch the intro video for a sneak peek into the course and discover the key functionalities of RMC-BestFit!

Learning Outcomes

In this course, you will be able to:

Import, preprocess, and analyse time series data for at-site flood frequency analysis.
Fit statistical distributions using Bayesian methods, including informative and quantile priors.
Diagnose and model nonstationarity using trend functions and climate-informed priors.
Apply advanced methods such as peaks-over-threshold, point-process analysis, and mixture models.
Evaluate model performance and uncertainty using diagnostics, model selection criteria, and model averaging techniques.

Course Outline

Session 1: Comprehensive At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis

(Thursday, 8 May from 9 – 11 AM Sydney Time)

Import and preprocess time series data for flow and rainfall.
Derive annual maxima and incorporate historical flood information.
Test for i.i.d. assumptions to validate frequency analysis inputs.
Fit candidate distributions and apply Bayesian analysis with noninformative and informative priors.
Assess Bayesian MCMC diagnostics and interpret posterior uncertainty.

Session 2: Nonstationary FFA and Model Averaging

(Thursday, 15 May from 9 – 11 AM Sydney Time)

Import and prepare nonstationary time series data.
Diagnose nonstationarity using hypothesis tests, ACF/PACF plots, and visual trend diagnostics.
Model nonstationarity using trend functions.
Incorporate climate-informed quantile priors to support scenario-based forecasting.
Perform model selection and model averaging using AIC, BIC, DIC, and RMSE-based weights.

Session 3: Peaks-Over-Threshold and Mixed Populations

(Thursday, 22 May from 9 – 11 AM Sydney Time)

Import time series data and perform peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis using the Generalised Pareto distribution.
Perform point-process analysis to compute annualised exceedance probabilities.
Analyse mixed-population flow data (e.g., rain and snow) and diagnose multimodality in flood distributions.
Fit mixture distributions to represent multiple flood-generating mechanisms.
Use the competing risk framework to model annual maxima arising from distinct flood types.

Format

3 x 2hr live interactive sessions from 9 – 11 AM Sydney Time
- Session 1: Thursday, 8 May
- Session 2: Thursday, 15 May
- Session 3: Thursday, 22 May
Ability to ask questions and have them answered in a live forum;
Written manual of the course, access to input files for workshop exercises, and working model downloads;
Ability to access all the online course materials for a further 30 days after the final live session of the course;
Sessions are recorded & uploaded to the learning platform (LMS – within 2 business days after the session), if you cannot attend live.

Pre-requisites

A basic understanding of hydrometeorology flood generating processes.
A general understanding of statistical hydrology and flood frequency analysis.
A working knowledge of setting up and running RMC-BestFit.
- To learn the RMC-BestFit functionalities where our presenters step through their own data sets to develop flood frequency analyses, filter outliers, and incorporate non-stationarity, register for the On-demand Premium Webinar – Mastering FFA: incorporating extreme events and climate change.
AWS Webinar to get an overview of the features and functionalities of RMC-BestFit

Requirements

A good internet connection.
Computer with Windows OS 10 or later.
Microsoft Excel for input data.
Software requirements:
- RMC-BestFit 2.0: https://www.rmc.usace.army.mil/Software/RMC-BestFit/

Completion certification

Participants earn CPD hours/points (i.e. with Engineers Australia) for at least 6 hours for the entire course.
On completion of the course attendees will be issued with a Certificate of Completion.

Refund Policy

Frequent Asked Questions (FAQs)